Scare Mongering or What?

by Mike Wild

Is this just another great scam by the IT industry to cream the business community or is there a major problem? The truth lies somewhere in the middle. ..

"WE'RE DOOMED! DOOMED I TELL YE!"Festive stuff! Ed.

There is no doubt that systems, microprocessors, applications and the like may be susceptible to the doomsday scenario. There is also no doubt that the large corporations are taking the Y2K problem very seriously. The UK industry expectation is that at least £10 billion will be spent on millennium compliance between now and year 2000. This equates to roughly 50% of the projected IT budget for the same period and that at least 5% of companies will go out of business because of the date change impact on their systems.

How serious is serious? You may well ask!

Serious enough that one major airline has already stated that it will not fly over the Xmas period.
Serious enough that one building society has said that non-compliance may mean not being able to bill customers for at least 6 months into the millennium.
Serious enough that one telephone company is having to change all its ledger systems (including interfaces)

With all the media hype and scare mongering, coupled with the growing number of emergency task and special interest groups it's hardly surprising that Industry is running scared. The bottom line, according to most millennium gurus, is that if you are a large organisation you are pretty much dead in the water if you haven't started looking at the potential problem already.

Whether you are a large or small company the message is clear, the millennium will effect your business in one form or the other. Don't be thrown into a blind panic; ask the question…how will this effect me and my business and what can I do to meet the challenge?

The US has been aware of the problem for some time and at least a third of companies there are taking real steps to deal with the problem. Unfortunately Europe, with a few notable exceptions, has been woefully lackadaisical in its attitude and we can anticipate some very rude shocks come the turn of the century.

Part of the problem is that there is still a very strong lobby of sceptics, a significant number of whom are unfortunately IT directors who provide glib compliance statements regarding their own legacy or package system, forgetting or ignoring external dependencies such as suppliers and customers. Nobody is going to win points for having a fully compliant business when their suppliers and customers are out of business.

Well is it too late? In most instances it is late – but too late? Not necessarily… So what can we do? Before any of the myths can be dispelled here are some home truths that cannot be ignored.

The Deadline...

For the first time in history of computing, slippage is not an option. The project end date will not move.

The Surprise...

Whatever your IT manager says, you can guarantee that there will be something that will give you a nasty surprise on January 3rd 2000 (1st & 2nd are Saturday & Sunday)

Isn't the 3rd a Bank Holiday - new year being on a Saturday 'n all? Mind you, the smart money in this office backs the idea that most of my fellowworkerswill have such a monumental hangover you probably won't see hide nor hair of 'em until 2000 January 10th - the following Monday! Ed.

The Career Move...

The golden handcuffs being offered by some companies do have their attractions and Y2K skills will become a scarce and sought-after commodity. The reality is that the millennium challenge will be a very stressful time for all involved and the price of failure has yet to be measured.

But won't Y2k skills be rather old hat come 2001? Ed.

The Support:

Skilled manpower resources will be scarce and at a premium. On a practical level how are you going to get volunteers to man systems between 31/12/1999 and 01/01/2000?

The Buggeration factor:

Several of your suppliers may not be in a position to provide compliance statements until very late in the day. Some are already committing to be compliant by 1998 – this doesn't give much time for such tasks as integration testing. How are you going to manage this?

The Impact:

It is going to cost a bomb and could have similar results...

Will you succeed?
Will your company be around come 2000 January 01 anyway?
Will the lift be working? … Who knows?

But if you DON'T begin in earnest now you might as well switch the lights off and go home. Oh dear, you have already...

Seriously, the message here is really that if you haven't started to address the issue, now is the time to act. It's not too late if a structured managed approach is taken. Identify what needs to be done and do it - in the right order. Good luck!

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